Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,624$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(686 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,250.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(27.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $365$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,806.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,806.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(829 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,097.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,097.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,846$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,389.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,389.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $249$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(83.7 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $459$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,198$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,097.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,097.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $328$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(85.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(322.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $270$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,875$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,294.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,294.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $604$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{585.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(585.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $563$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,836$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(755 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,807.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,807.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,209$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,806.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,806.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,471.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,471.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,536$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,727$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301,632.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(301,632.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,598$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,393.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,393.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $266,765$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,136$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(6.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,056.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,676.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,676.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,836$ on 2020-06-27
